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House Prices: When Will 2006 Values Return?


2006There is a lot of optimism regarding house prices. The most recent Home Price Expectation Survey projects a 3% -3.5% increase in values for each of the next 5 years. We concur that most parts of the country will see varying levels of appreciation over that time. However, we must realize that we will not see 2006 values any time soon.

Barclays’ U.S. residential credit strategy team recently predicted that 2006 values would return in 2021. From an article in DSNews:

“While the floor appears to have materialized, they stress that home prices are likely to recover slowly over the next 4 to 5 years.

“We expect on average a 3-4 percent annual increase in home prices [nationally] in coming years,” they said in an updated market outlook.

At that rate, Barclays’ analysts explained, home prices will be slightly below their 2006 peaks even in 2020, finally returning to pre-crisis peak levels in June 2021.

In an article for CNNMoney, the analytics firm Fiserv projected that 2006 prices would not return until 2023:

“Fiserv forecasts prices will bounce back an average of 3.7% a year for the next five years -- a rate that would still leave prices 20% below the peak. At that forecasted growth rate, the national average high of $238,000 would not be hit again until 2023.”

If you are waiting for 2006 values to return before selling your house, realize it will take years.

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3 Responses to “House Prices: When Will 2006 Values Return?”

  1. Bill Black February 11, 2013 at 1:34 pm # Reply

    For those underwater it is important to understand the meaning of this and the importance to put together a strategic game plan. Paying an extra payment and as much to principal as possible is one of the most effective goals toward getting above the underwater lines.

  2. Or not February 12, 2013 at 9:45 pm # Reply

    Shiller: Housing market comeback may be an illusion

    By
    Bloomberg News
    on January 24, 2013 at 11:11 AM, updated January 24, 2013 at 11:24 AM

    It's still too early to say if the housing market comeback is for real.
    Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

    A U.S. housing-market revival may prove illusory and the threat of
    further weakness remains, said Robert Shiller, a professor at Yale
    University and co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property
    values.

    “The housing market has been declining for something like six years
    now, it could go on, that’s my worry,” Shiller told Tom Keene in a
    Bloomberg Television interview today in Davos, Switzerland. “The
    short-term indicators are up now, it definitely looks better, but we saw
    that in 2009.”

    The property market has shown signs of recovery and homebuilding has
    rebounded as low borrowing costs spur buyer demand, bolster prices.
    Values rose 7.4 percent in November from a year earlier, the ninth
    straight increase and the biggest gain since May 2006, data provider
    CoreLogic said last week.

    “It’s a good housing market in the sense that mortgage rates are very
    low and prices have come down to normal levels, so yes, it’s a good
    time to buy if nothing bad happens,” Shiller said. “But it’s also a very
    bad housing market in that most of the mortgages are being supported by
    the government, and we have the Fed and this buying program. It’s a
    very abnormal market. There’s a lot of uncertainty going forward.”

    New-home sales in December picked up to a 385,000 annual rate,
    according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg
    ahead of a Commerce Department report tomorrow.

    The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities
    increased an annual 4.3 percent in October, the biggest 12-month advance
    since May 2010, the group said on Dec. 26. The next report is due on
    Jan. 29.

    Data on Jan. 22 showed sales of U.S. existing homes unexpectedly fell
    in December. Purchases fell 1 percent to a 4.94 million annual rate
    last month, the National Association of Realtors said. The median
    forecast in a Bloomberg survey was for a gain to a 5.1 million rate.

    Shiller, who spoke while attending the World Economic Forum’s 2013
    annual meeting, also said that while global economic conditions are “a
    little better,” there are still risks to the recovery.

    “We’ve been five years in a slow economy, and it could go quite a bit
    longer,” he said. “We’ve seen gross domestic product growth at
    sub-normal levels.”

    He added, “I think we’re pretty far from irrational exuberance, maybe 50 years away.”

    Bloomberg

  3. minimum EMI for a plot February 15, 2013 at 1:41 am # Reply

    It is very difficult to Expect that 2006 prices wil come again as because the inflation rate is at its peak,and the demand of land is also goes high.

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