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Where Prices are Headed over the Next 5 Years

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Home-Price-Expectation-275Today, many real estate conversations center on housing prices and where they may be headed. That is why we like the Home Price Expectation Survey. Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists about where prices are headed over the next five years. They then average the projections of all 100+ experts into a single number.

The results of their latest survey

The latest survey was released last week. Here are the results:

  • Home values will appreciate by 4.3% in 2014.
  • The average annual appreciation will be 4.2% over the next 5 years
  • The cumulative appreciation will be 28% by 2018.
  • Even the experts making up the most bearish quartile of the survey still are projecting a cumulative appreciation of over 16.8% by 2018.

Individual opinions make headlines. We believe the survey is a fairer depiction of future values.



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7 Responses to “Where Prices are Headed over the Next 5 Years”

  1. William Wagner November 12, 2013 at 5:58 pm # Reply

    I think these experts are overlooking many economic factors. Interest rates are going to rise and as a result, prices will be forced down. Lending is about to tighten a little more. Unemployment will have to decrease. Earnings will have to rise at a rate in excess of 4% year. Pending sales have already started to slow. There is a lot of consumer debt that still has to be re-payed and we still haven’t finished with short sales and foreclosures in many areas of the country. And what about the national debt that everyone keeps ignoring. Sooner or later it has to be atoned for. I guess I’m stupid , but there a some serious issues that have to be addressed before we will ever see a true recovery.

    • Maureen December 1, 2013 at 2:52 pm # Reply

      I totally agree and putting these numbers out there only makes it worse. Sellers st
      art adding the gains in their minds and buyers want to bid extra low to defer the “gains” these sellers are aiming to receive.

    • Brigit December 2, 2013 at 7:43 pm # Reply

      Well done!
      Experts without common sense are dangerous people!

  2. Wendy November 12, 2013 at 7:28 pm # Reply

    Where area are you referring to when you say the prediction is houses will be up 28%?

    • Steve Harney November 12, 2013 at 7:47 pm # Reply

      Wendy – those are national projections.

  3. Brigit December 2, 2013 at 7:42 pm # Reply

    Mr. Wagner is more on target than these 100 experts !
    He has what is a rare commodity ….common sense!

  4. Mark December 3, 2013 at 10:58 pm # Reply

    I wouldn’t expect appreciation rates (on average) to be any higher than the rate of inflation.The Phillips Curve is evidence that despite future rising interest rates, the growth potential can be offset by a reduction in unemployment (and hopefully a rise in disposable income) as they are inversely correlated. There are too many “it depends” variables to list.

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