Blog

The Truth About NAR’s Home Sales Numbers


Up or DownThe National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their latest Existing Homes Sales Report last Friday. The year-over-year comparison of overall sales did not paint a pretty picture. NAR itself called the sales numbers “subdued”. Other media sources used stronger terminology.

There is no doubt that home sales were lower this February (4.60 million) than last February (4.95 million). However, a closer look at the report gives us some evidence as to why that is. Last year, of the 4.95M homes sold, 25% were distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales). This February, only 16% of sales were made up of distressed properties.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT?

Well, if we do the math, we can see that the annualized number of non-distressed properties sold which was revealed in the latest report (3,864,000) was actually greater than the annualized number of non-distressed properties sold that was reported last year (3,712,500). As we sell-off the ‘shadow inventory’ of distressed properties, there will be less homes from which a potential buyer can choose. That will impact sales.

As proof of this point, we can look at the months’ supply of housing inventory available for purchase. In a normal market, a six month supply would be optimum. However, we haven’t reached a six month supply once in over 18 months. This shortage of inventory is the main reason sales are down.

THE GOOD NEWS

As prices continue to rise, more and more homeowners will be freed from the shackles of negative or limited equity. This combined with an improving economy will allow homeowners to again feel confident that they can sell their homes and move on with their future plans. We are already starting to see increases in listings coming onto the market (unsold inventory is 5.3 percent above a year ago). Once housing inventory reaches normal levels (a 6 months’ supply) we will again see home sales begin to increase.

Existing-Sales-Report

Share

About The KCM Crew

We at The KCM Crew are pursuing our mission to provide real estate professionals with the tools and information they need to guarantee success in any real estate market. With strong visual aids and expert analysis, we empower real estate professionals across the country to stand out as experts in their marketplace. Take a 14-Day Free Trial of our monthly membership to see how we can help you!

5 Responses to “The Truth About NAR’s Home Sales Numbers”

  1. Pete Sambets March 25, 2014 at 10:08 am # Reply

    Thank you for this information. Why do you suppose NAR did not stress this in their Press Release? I have found that NAR's press releases and advertising generally lean toward the positive and we are left with deciphering what those numbers really mean!

    • Reita Novkov April 1, 2014 at 4:01 pm # Reply

      I noticed that a long time ago and advise my clients to discount their remarks and press releases as having way too much spin toward the positive side.

  2. Dave Hanna March 25, 2014 at 6:21 pm # Reply

    I thought the Spin doctors were a music group, not a real estate consulting/media organization.
    Volume is volume, and a nearly 10% drop in unit sales year over year is not good news for the market or the consumer.
    the fact of the matter is the recovery in real estate is local, not national. Many areas continue to lag behind, and mortgage applications are plummeting.
    The top 5% of the financial population continue to make decisions for all based not in fact, but their own limited perception of how healthy the economy is (as in, I have money to enjoy the better things in life again, so all must be well).

    • Steve Harney March 25, 2014 at 6:29 pm # Reply

      Dave - Love the Spin Doctors reference. We understand your position. However, CoreLogic's latest report also shows that distressed sales are off but non-distressed sales are increasing (existing home sales up 18% and New Construction up 23%).

      BTW, purchase money mortgage applications (when someone is buying a home) are off less than 1%. Plummeting? We think that is overstating the issue.

  3. george cuevas April 1, 2014 at 5:25 pm # Reply

    Interesting take on the NAR news release. I do agree with you. With inventory tighter there are fewer properties to purchase. One thing missing from the article is the impact of investors. Investors, both large and small, we're a big part of the sales activity in 2013. There are fewer properties for them to purchase.

Leave a Reply