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Today’s Talking Point 9/28/09

Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Drop

The new NAR report came out showing existing home sales dropped 2.7% after several months of increases. As we have been saying for the last 60 days, the market is probably leveling off. However, it will not be a ‘V’ recovery, where the sales would bounce off the bottom, but instead an ‘L’ recovery, where sales will probably dribble along the floor for some time before they will be strong enough to recapture true momentum. Use the the terms ‘V’ recovery and ‘L’ recovery with your clients but then immediately explain what you mean by those terms.


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2 replies
  1. Matthew Ferrara
    Matthew Ferrara says:

    Steve:

    Great blog! Congratulations – it looks awesome.

    What’s your thinking on a kind of “W” shaped recovery, where the right-side of the W is really a long, slow, upward curve? I’m concerned about the reports we’re hearing about the number of homes in “pre-foreclosure” at 30 and 60 day loan delinquincies, plus inventory that Fan/Fred have been sitting on, withholding from the market….

    Also, at the same time home sales dropped 2.7% it also looks like median pricing fell another $20k to about $177k nationwide. Since real estate is a commission business, that means even less earned income for the same – or more, considering funding times – amount of work.

    Would appreciate your thoughts!

    – Matthew Ferrara

    Reply

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