• English
  • Español
AGENTS: Did you know you can share a personalized version of this post? Learn more!
, ,

Future Home Prices: Expectations from the Experts

MacroMarkets has assembled a very distinguished panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts who are surveyed every month regarding their 5-year expectations for future home prices in the U.S. The report is the Home Price Expectations Survey.

Their purpose for this undertaking?

We are hopeful that this survey, and our panelists, will help to stimulate constructive debate among consumers, institutions and policy makers regarding expected future changes in home prices – and their behavioral, policy, and risk management implications.

We believe each of their goals is important. We also want to relay the findings of the surveys to you in order for you to see what the experts are saying and also look at the trends that are developing in their beliefs.

What the experts are saying:

The August survey reported that only 21% of those surveyed predict “positive growth in prices nation-wide for 2010”. The report also revealed that the group, as a whole, predicts that home prices will have a cumulative 8.43% appreciation by the fourth quarter of 2014.

What trends are developing:

The report shows an increase in concern about the housing recovery. The survey reports that 79% of the economists and analysts surveyed are expecting home prices to decline this year. That number is up from 40% in May.

For the third consecutive month, the consensus from the experts indicates weakened overall confidence in the U.S. housing recovery … (with) average expected cumulative price appreciation through 2014 falling almost one-third since our inaugural survey just three months ago …

The evolution of the panel toward more conservative projections of appreciation for the next five years can be seen in their adjustment of that cumulative mean appreciation over the last four reports. Here is their percentage projection of appreciation for the 4th quarter of 2014 (compared to the 4th quarter of 2009).

  • May’s report called for a five year cumulative appreciation of 12.43%.
  • June’s report called for a five year cumulative appreciation of 10.46%.
  • July’s report called for a five year cumulative appreciation of 9.46%.
  • Augusts’ report called for a five year cumulative appreciation of 8.43%.

Bottom Line:

The leading housing industry experts are becoming less optimistic about a  recovery. Waiting for prices to come back before selling? That could be a rather long wait.


Members: Sign in now to set up your Personalized Posts & start sharing today!

Not a Member Yet? Click Here to learn more about KCM’s newest feature, Personalized Posts.

0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *