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2 replies
  1. Larry Pierson
    Larry Pierson says:

    Steve,
    You tell us that the ‘shadow inventory’ about to come on the market (homes over 90 days past due) that are 50 to 1 more than currently on the market today. Yet Moody’s is predicting an uptick in the home values by 2014. How can we be expected to deal with this tremendous amount of inventory expected to come onto our markets later this year by that time? Case Shiller says the bottom of the market will be in Feb. 2012 and with threatening rises in interest rates it could certainly take far longer to rebound. Isn’t this true?
    Please help me to understand.
    Thanks,
    Larry

    Reply
    • Steve Harney
      Steve Harney says:

      @Larry,
      Everyone is at least a little confused and most are very confused. The housing recovery will be determind by how soon we work through the shadow inventory of distressed properties. That will be determined by two things:

      1.) How quickly that inventory comes to market.
      2.) How long it takes to clear that inventory.

      Those that think this will happen quickly are looking for a more rapid recovery (appreciation starting in mid 2012). Those who think this will be a more timely process believe that the recovery will be later (appreciation not taking place again until 2014 or later). Hope this helps.

      Reply

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