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The Best Real Estate Graph of the Year?

Here at the KCM Blog we attempt to bring clarity to a very confusing real estate market. There is news breaking every day and one report seems to contradict another. Today, we are going to take all the news available and put into a single graph. How do we propose to do that?

By cheating a little.

MacroMarkets is a company founded by Professor Robert Shiller of Case-Shiller fame. The company has assembled a distinguished panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts who they survey every month regarding the experts’ 5-year expectations for future home prices in the United States.

We decided that this group of experts does an extraordinary amount of research on the housing industry and that the culmination of their expectations would give a true picture of where the real estate market truly is, and will be, over the next five years.

We decided to graph this on a timeline so you can see how the ‘experts’ believe the market will perform. Below is a graph of the mean, cumulative home prices that the experts expect over the next five years.

We can see that the experts are calling for prices to decline for the next year and then take another year to regain that loss and have values equal today’s prices. They then see prices steadily appreciating over the following several years.

What does this mean to you?

If you are selling, the price you can expect to receive for your house will be lower over the next two years than it is today.

If you buy today, you could see a cumulative appreciation of almost 10% in five years.


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