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Will I Get More Money If I Wait?

Sellers in any real estate market are looking to get the best possible price. If you are looking to sell in the next year, today’s price may well be the best price. Home values stabilized somewhat in 2010. Many hoped that was a sign that values had bottomed out and we would see price appreciation in 2011. Studies released this week have painted a different picture.

If we look at CoreLogics January Home Price Index (HPI), we see that prices are again beginning to decline:

National home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 5.7 percent in January 2011 compared to January 2010

Mark Fleming, chief economist with CoreLogic, said, “A number of factors continue to dampen any recovery in the housing market. Negative equity, which limits the mobility of homeowners, weak demand and the overhang of shadow inventory all continue to exert downward pressure on housing prices. We are looking out for renewed demand in the coming months as the spring buying season gets underway to hopefully reduce the downward pressure.”

They are not talking about the spring market increasing or even stabilizing prices. They hope it will “reduce” the pressure to drive prices lower.

Radar Logic’s RPX Composite Price comes to virtually the same conclusion:

Radar Logic believes the RPX Composite price will continue to exhibit year-on-year declines throughout 2011 due to a growing supply of homes for sale and in the inventories of financial institutions, and weakening demand due to the reduction of government incentives for home buyers. Moreover, banks are facing uncertainty over whether they will be forced by regulators to expand mortgage modifications, and may reduce lending and tighten standards as a result.

“No matter what you call it, a ‘double dip’ or the continuation of a long process of deterioration, the current trend in home prices is evidence that housing markets are continuing to languish,” said Quinn Eddins, Director of Research at Radar Logic. “We expect the negative trend to continue under a severe supply overhang that includes a large and growing ‘shadow inventory’ of homes in default or foreclosure.”

Bottom Line

It seems that prices have again begun to fall nationally. With the overhang of existing and shadow inventory, prices will probably continue to decline throughout most of 2011. If you’re thinking of selling, now might be the best time. Check with a local real estate professional to see how this might impact your area.


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14 replies
  1. Fenwrick
    Fenwrick says:

    The thinking of waiting until (spring/summer) is outdated. And yet no one, it seems is willing to say one way or the other about the price of homes. But, look and listen to the lenders themselves: BoA, Wells Fargo, Freddy and Fannie, they who have control over the most foreclosure inventory/delinquent loans, have stated that they see a 3-8% drop in prices this year. The govt. has stated that they are looking into revamping Freddie & Fannie. HHMMM? That sounds to me like they are looking into dumping their negative equity properties onto the private sector. If you are seriously thinking of selling your home, you need to get real with the prospect of pricing it correctly TODAY. You may not be willing to “give it away” that isn’t neccessary, just be honest.

    Reply
  2. David Mott
    David Mott says:

    People are paying insurance on their homes (foreclosure, short sale, or normal sale) based on a rebuild rate that hasn’t adjusted down with this ‘end of the world’ real estate market. Buy a home for 100K that is worth 200K and you will probably have to pay insurance on the 200K home.

    Is the rebuild rate close to an honest value?

    The rebuild rate will not usually adjust down, as materials cost what they cost and labor costs what it costs.

    If you want to sell and don’t have to, there’s no point in taking a loss right now, even if you think you can sell your home and buy an even cheaper but larger and better home. Property taxes will come to haunt you one day, I have no doubt about that.

    ;)

    Reply
  3. sarah
    sarah says:

    AND ………….who got us into this mess to begin with?
    Degregulation and lazy unscupulous mortgage lenders and banking institutions…….. So now, we homeowners, currently paying our bills, holding our mortgages together, the WORKERS……

    How much longer will even current homeowners continue paying their mortgages when their homes continue to go down in value – not easy to swollow…..

    Someone needs to explain how the banking institutions can get away with this ……..Someone has to pay for being negligent and wasting MY ?

    As Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reorganize – I fear there will be even more restrictions & rules to deter potential home buyers.

    More and more distressed properties will come onto the market as more and more folks default on their ARMS or lose their jobs or find they owe more than their home is worth…..

    It is a big BIG mess, which has been caused by financial institutions lending out money to people who could not afford to pay back….. makes no fiscal sense unless somebody is making money out of it, ooooops …………. and didn’t those CEOs leave office with a golden parachute?

    Reply
  4. Martin Hepworth
    Martin Hepworth says:

    To sarah,
    There is an old Irish expression that says, “It’s better to light a penny candle than to sit and curse the darkness”
    We can point fingers at who is to blame for the real estate mess.(not enough fingers) Or we can demonstrate to buyers and sellers why our services are so critical in this very challenging market.

    Reply
  5. Paul Thomas
    Paul Thomas says:

    Martin If we take your advice we are dam to repeat the mistakes. Sarah is on point with her statements. But I also believe for every door that closes another door opens, we just have to find the open door. Sarah I wish the people in Washington and Wall Street would admit they are to blame. The only way to correct this mess is for the lenders to redo upside down homeowners and take a share of the future appreciation. That is the price the homeowner has to give up for the reduction in the loan balance. This may be distasteful to some but tell me a better approach, the current direction this country is taking is causing more and more homeowners to just give up. Rather than say I am wrong tell me your solution you just may have a better solution.

    Reply

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