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Should I Wait To Sell My House?

There have been more and more reports showing that the housing market is beginning to recover. This has caused angst among some homeowners who are considering whether or not to sell their house in the next several months. With the market showing signs of life, the question becomes should they wait to sell because prices may be about to increase.

The data proves that sales are increasing nicely. However, there is no consensus on home prices yet. At the National Association of Real Estate Editors conference in Denver at the end of June, Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said:

“This time next year, there could be a 10% price appreciation. I would not be surprised to see that.”

During the same week, Morgan Stanley came out with a housing report that stated where they believed housing values were headed over the next eighteen months:

“We estimate a drop of 5-10% more.”

Which direction are prices headed? As we previously stated, there are opinions on both ends of the argument.

However, if we look at the Home Expectation Survey, which asks a distinguished panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market experts to give their 5-year expectations for future home prices in the United States, we see the average cumulative appreciation expected by the end of next year (2013) is only .9%.

Should you sell now or wait? Does it make sense to delay your move for 18 months in order to get less than a 1% increase in your selling price? Only you can answer that question.


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1 reply
  1. David Mott
    David Mott says:

    A friend sent me this web page from the Motley Fool about real estate goings on in the Puget Sound market. I don’t know how long the post will be there. Here’s the link:
    http://boards.fool.com/micro-view-to-a-macro-issue-30126552.aspx?sort=postdate
    and the post follows. My main interest was in item number 4. I saw this:
    “appraisers are now starting to ignore REOs as comps when setting values”, an item which excited me. I do hope that this trend will spread nation wide.
    *snip*
    Had a surprise lunch with a real estate friend yesterday who came down and visited me. I haven’t talked to or seen her in months.

    This is what she told me about the Puget Sound market:

    1) Inventory is thin. There isn’t a lot out there

    2) Multiple bids on desirable properties, stuff is getting run up, sometimes up 20%

    3) Homes are appraising higher

    4) The REO properties out there are utter crap. The bank owners are doing nothing to update or care for the properties. Further, they are doing nothing to negotiate on price, nor provide any incentive or protection to buyers. Buyers are simply walking away and appraisers are now starting to ignore REOs as comps when setting values. The gap due to neglect is not having the, if you subscribe to the school of thought, desired effect of lowering overall values. It is having the direct opposite, the values on REO continue to go down, no one wants to buy them, and the turn key homes are selling at a blistering pace. They feel if the banks don’t either negotiate, provide buyers with SOME shred of protection, or don’t update/care for the homes they’ll be stuck holding the bag. The unfortunate ones will be the owners who live directly next door or across the street from a blighted home, but the impact to a neighborhood is less than what people think (again, that’s here, we’re not talking Detroit).

    5) New construction is BOOMING. In part due to weak inventory and the crappiness of REO. Even builders with bad reputations like Quadrant are selling like crazy.

    6) Definite easing in getting mortgages. Pendulum has swung to, “ideal.” If you have an old blemish or two you can still get a mortgage, no longer need to know Jesus first hand. On the other hand if your credit is damaged, you’re out of the game period. Concerned longer term that it will swing back to being “too easy” in the near future.

    7) If you were looking for a deal in Puget Sound, the boat already left the dock.

    8) She has utterly no life – crazy busy.

    The sentiment of crazy busy has been echoed by a couple of other real estate friends.

    */snip*

    Reply

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