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The Beginning of an Economic Recovery

The Beginning of an Economic Recovery

The news these days seems to have a mix of highs and lows. We may hear that an economic recovery is starting, but we’ve also seen some of the worst economic data in the history of our country. The challenge today is to understand exactly what’s going on and what it means relative to the road ahead. We’ve talked before about what experts expect in the second half of this year, and today that progress largely hinges upon the continued course of the virus.

A recent Wall Street Journal survey of economists noted, “A strong economic recovery depends on effective and sustained containment of Covid-19.” Given the uncertainty around the virus, we can also see what economists are forecasting for GDP in the third quarter of this year (see graph below):The Beginning of an Economic Recovery | Keeping Current MattersOverwhelmingly, economists are projecting GDP growth in the third quarter of 2020, with 5 of the 9 experts indicating over 20% growth.

Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley puts it this way:

“Indeed, the ‘worst ever’ GDP reading could be followed by the ‘best ever’ growth in the third quarter.”

As we look forward, we can expect consumer spending to improve as well. According to Opportunity Insights, as of August 1, consumer spending was down just 7.8% as compared to January 1 of this year.

Bottom Line

An economic recovery is beginning to happen throughout the country. While there are still questions that need to be answered about the road ahead, we can expect to see improvement this quarter.


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2 replies
  1. Valentina Hadinata
    Valentina Hadinata says:

    Hi David,
    I am interested in personalize your blogs and the other materials.

    Can someone guide on this? I also like to know more about your social media.

    Thanks in advance.

    Sincerely,

    Valentina Hadinata

    Reply
  2. randal jenkins
    randal jenkins says:

    In all the news we see, no ones seems to remember that there is a moratorium on evictions and foreclosures. The data on the unpaid mortgage and rent payments suggest that there are thousands or tens of thousands of people that are behind. It makes sense, 40 million people lost their jobs, even if 25 million are rehired it means that there are millions of people behind. What is going to happen when those homes start to hit the market?

    Reply

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