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¿Es realmente bienes raíces residencial un ‘juego de azar’?

¿Es realmente bienes raíces residencial un ‘juego de azar’?

Nuestro fundador, Steve Harney, ocasionalmente pide hacer un post personal en lo que él considera importante para nuestra industria. Hoy es uno de esos días. ¡Disfruten!- the KCM Crew

Eso es lo que un titular anuncio en un post de CNNMoney el lunes. Ellos citaron a Karl Case “Un economista cuyo nombre es sinónimo de los precios de las casas. Él es Co-creador del índice de precios de casas de S&P/ Case-Shiller con Bob Shiller, quien ganó el Premio Nobel de economía el año pasado.”

Case explico que la creencia generalizada de que los precios de la vivienda ‘nunca’ podrían depreciar fue corregida durante la última década. Y es ciento que Case hizo referencia a una casa que el compro durante ese tiempo y que perdió casi la mitad de su valor.

Sin embargo, hubieron otros comentarios atribuidos a Case en este artículo:

• El compro una casa en $54,000 la cual el vendió después por más de cuatro veces esa cantidad ($240,000)
• Otra casa que el compro por $375,000 ahora vale un millón de dólares.

El aposto en tres casas; una perdió 50%, otra gano más de 400% y la otra gano aproximadamente 300%. Suena como una gran probabilidad para mí.

Deme los dados y salgase de mi camino.

La semana pasada, John Maxfield, en un post del blog de The Motley Fool, Escribió:

“Durante el año pasado, [los precios de las casas] subieron 8.9%. Durante los últimos dos años, ellos subieron 19.7%. Durante los últimos tres años, ellos subieron 23% y hay poca evidencia que esta tendencia está llegando pronto a su fin…

Debería ser obvio porque ahora es un momento tan oportuno para comprar una casa. Por supuesto, si usted quiere esperar, eso depende de usted, pero hacerlo podría ser una fuente de arrepentimiento más adelante.”

Deme los dados y salgase de mi camino.

Si comprar bienes raíces residencial es en realidad un juego de azar (como el titular afirma), parece que las probabilidades están en las manos del tirador.

POR FAVOR deme los dados y salgase de mi camino. Yo quiero lanzar los dados.


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2 comentarios
  1. Michael J. Kelly
    Michael J. Kelly Dice:

    “Crap Shoot”? When did owning a home become a gamble? The crash we had in real estate was fueled by folks who didn’t wish to own a home but a super hot investment commodity which consumers felt would be their big financial SCORE! And it was as they refinanced every 6 months and pulled big chunks of cash out of their investment commodity. They didn’t care nor understand the type of loan used for the re-finance. Prepayment penalty? LIBOR indices? Adjustable index? What the lender charged for the refinance? In this environment the “Home” became just another speculative investment with unsustainable returns based on faulty information. They submitted to the siren song of instant cash and the hollow promise, “We’ll always have appreciation”.
    What ensued was a major crash of housing prices. Those who owned a home didn’t really care about the run up and the crash. They purchased their home at a price with monthly payments they could afford. These homeowners didn’t think they bought an ATM but a place to be free from the whims of a landlord and escalating rent. They might have refinanced or taken out a credit line for home improvement or sending a kid through college–both good returns of money borrowed. They didn’t go out and buy a hot ski boat or a trophy wife. When the market crashed they lost their equity but that was also sort of o.k. because it was never in their initial home purchase equation.
    Many a lucky homeowner sold their homes at the height of the market and took their money and ran. Retirement, relocation or estate settlements. A windfall for all. Many of my clients moved out of this wacky state of California settling in other parts of the country not effected by our price appreciation juggernaut. They would sell, and if a couple, take their $500,000 capital gains forgiveness and pay cash for the next home plus have money to buy a couple of investment properties. Today they have a home with modest appreciation, owned free and clear plus two rentals paying them monthly income which has increased also.
    However, we all now know these folks where few and far between. Prices crashed in Sonoma County up to 60% in some areas. Many of those areas have come back to their pre-crash prices but still many homeowners are still underwater with their loans. The crash also presented the best buyers market in decades. Those who bought in the ensuing buyers market comprised new homeowners and savvy investors. The new homebuyer bought at fire-sale prices and have reaped the tremendous run up in home prices in the past three years–median home price up 44%.
    We represented many institutions in the sale of the foreclosed homes and also processed “Short-Sales”. Our buyers from this era are now sitting on big equity with a stunning return on investment. One single guy purchased a cute, 2 bedroom in Rincon Valley at a super discounted “Short-Sale” price with only 5% down. Return on investment, his down payment, has been astronomical. Did he BUY for a super return on investment or ROI? No, he was looking for a home for he and his finance with great schools for their future family. The 2 bedroom would eventually become a rental as their family grew and they moved on up the home ladder.
    Another couple, relocating from a condemnation procedure and road widening, got a great deal on a newly “Flipped” home. The “Flipper” buying a foreclosed home in bad shape at a great price, recycled it into a charming home which our clients purchased. They were seeking another home and not an investment vehicle. With their low down payment and tremendous run up in prices their ROI is also through the roof. Crap shoot? All depends on your point of few.

    Responder

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