If you're stressed about a Silver Tsunami shaking the housing market overnight, don't be. Baby boomers will move slowly over a much longer period of time.

Have you heard the term “Silver Tsunami” getting tossed around recently? If so, here’s what you really need to know. That phrase refers to the idea that a lot of baby boomers are going to move or downsize all at once. And the fear is that a sudden influx of homes for sale would have a big impact on housing. That’s because it would create a whole lot more competition for smaller homes and would throw off the balance of supply and demand, which ultimately would impact home prices.

But here’s the thing. There are a couple of faults in that logic. Let’s break them down and put your mind at ease.

Not All Baby Boomers Plan To Move

For starters, plenty of baby boomers don’t plan on moving at all. A study from the AARP says more than half of adults aged 65 and older want to stay in their homes and not move as they age (see graph below):

While it’s true circumstances may change and some people who don’t plan to move (the red in the chart above) may realize they need to down the road, the vast majority are counting on aging in place.

As for those who stay put, they’ll likely modify their homes as their needs change over time. And when updating their existing home won’t work, some will buy a second home and keep their original one as an investment to fuel generational wealth for their loved ones. As an article from Inman explains:

“Many boomers have no desire to retire fully and take up less space . . . Many will modify their current home, and the wealthiest will opt to have multiple homes.”

Even Those Who Do Move Won’t Do It All at Once

While not all baby boomers are looking to sell their homes and move – the ones who do won’t all do it at the same time. Instead, it’ll happen slowly over many years. As Freddie Mac says:

“We forecast the ‘tsunami’ will be more like a tide, bringing a gradual exit of 9.2 million Boomers by 2035 . . .”

As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:

“Demographics are never a tsunami. The baby boomer generation is almost two decades of births. That means they’re going to take about two decades to work their way through.”

Have you heard the term “Silver Tsunami” getting tossed around recently? If so, here’s what you really need to know.

If you're stressed about a Silver Tsunami shaking the housing market overnight, don't be. Baby boomers will move slowly over a much longer period of time.

Here’s a look at how industry leaders are explaining the impact global uncertainty has on mortgage rates:

“While mortgage rates trended upward in 2022, one unintended side effect of global uncertainty is that it often results in downward pressure on mortgage rates.”

“Geopolitical events play an important role in impacting the long end of the yield curve and mortgage rates. For example, in the weeks following the ‘Brexit’ vote in 2016, the U.S. Treasury bond yield declined and led to a corresponding decline in mortgage rates.”

Will Mortgage Rates Stay Down?

“Geopolitical tensions caused U.S. Treasury yields to recede this week . . . leading to a drop in mortgage rates. While inflationary pressures remain, the cascading impacts of the war in Ukraine have created market uncertainty. Consequently, rates are expected to stay low in the short-term but will likely increase in the coming months.” 

Bottom Line

1. Your House Will Likely Sell Quickly

2. Buyers Are Willing To Compete for Your House

“The frequency of buyers being willing to pay more than the market data supports is increasing.”

3. When Supply Is Low, Your House Is in the Spotlight

“Total housing inventory at the end of May amounted to 1.23 million units, up 7.0% from April's inventory and down 20.6% from one year ago (1.55 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.5-month supply at the present sales pace, marginally up from April's 2.4-month supply but down from 4.6-months in May 2020.”

“It looks like existing inventory is starting to inch up, which is good news for a housing market parched for more supply.”

4. If You’re Thinking of Moving Up, Now May Be the Time

“Nevertheless, as the economic outlook for the United States looks brighter for the rest of the year, mortgage rates are expected to rise in the following months.”

Bottom Line

“One of the most noteworthy things that came up in Inman’s conversations with agents was that every single one said they’ve had conversations with clients about whether or not the market is heading into a bubble.”

Goldman Sachs’ Research Note on Housing:

“Strong demand for housing looks sustainable. Even before the pandemic, demographic tailwinds and historically-low mortgage rates had pushed demand to high levels. ... consumer surveys indicate that household buying intentions are now the highest in 20 years. … As a result, the model projects double-digit price gains both this year and next.”

Joe Seydl, Senior Markets Economist, J.P.Morgan:

“Homebuyers—interest rates are still historically low, though they are inching up. Housing prices have spiked during the last six-to-nine months, but we don’t expect them to fall soon, and we believe they are more likely to keep rising. If you are looking to purchase a new home, conditions now may be better than 12 months hence.”

Morgan Stanley, Thoughts on the Market Podcast:

“Unlike 15 years ago, the euphoria in today's home prices comes down to the simple logic of supply and demand. And we at Morgan Stanley conclude that this time the sector is on a sustainably, sturdy foundation . . . . This robust demand and highly challenged supply, along with tight mortgage lending standards, may continue to bode well for home prices. Higher interest rates and post pandemic moves could likely slow the pace of appreciation, but the upward trajectory remains very much on course.”

Merrill Lynch’s Capital Market Outlook:

“There are reasons to believe that this is likely to be an unusually long and strong housing expansion. Demand is very strong because the biggest demographic cohort in history is moving through the household-formation and peak home-buying stages of its life cycle. Coronavirus-related preference changes have also sharply boosted home buying demand. At the same time, supply is unusually tight, with available homes for sale at record-low levels. Double-digit price gains are rationing the supply.”

Bottom Line

Announcement from the census: As a result of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19), data collection operations for the CPS/HVS were affected during the second quarter of 2020. In-person interviews were suspended for the duration of the second quarter and replaced with telephone interview attempts when contact information was available. If the Field Representative was unable to get information on the sample unit, the unit was made a Type A no interview (no one home, refusal, etc.). See the FAQ for more information.

“The homeownership rate of 67.9 percent was 3.8 percentage points higher than the rate in the second quarter 2019 (64.1 percent) and 2.6 percentage points higher than the rate in the first quarter 2020 (65.3 percent).”

“Mortgage rates are the icing on the cake for households that were thinking about buying...They found an unexpected opportunity during the worst economic downturn America has seen since the Great Depression.”

“Big jump in the homeownership rate today, mostly driven by younger households. We saw a spike in the number of owners, and a decline in the number of renters. This is the highest rate of homeownership since 2008.”

Bottom Line

Announcement from the census: As a result of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19), data collection operations for the CPS/HVS were affected during the second quarter of 2020. In-person interviews were suspended for the duration of the second quarter and replaced with telephone interview attempts when contact information was available. If the Field Representative was unable to get information on the sample unit, the unit was made a Type A no interview (no one home, refusal, etc.). See the FAQ for more information.

1. Goldman Sachs Forecasts the Largest Drop in GDP in Almost 100 Years

“Historical analysis showed us that pandemics are usually V-shaped (sharp recessions that recover quickly enough to provide little damage to home prices), and some very cutting-edge search engine analysis by our Information Management team showed the current slowdown is playing out similarly thus far.”

2. Fed President Predicts 30% Unemployment!

“This is a planned, organized partial shutdown of the U.S. economy in the second quarter,” Bullard said. “The overall goal is to keep everyone, households and businesses, whole” with government support.

“I would see the third quarter as a transitional quarter” with the fourth quarter and first quarter next year as “quite robust” as Americans make up for lost spending. “Those quarters might be boom quarters,” he said.

Bottom Line

“Baby boomers are now reaching the age when moving to an active adult community is the ideal opportunity for them…Many boomers now want to downsize, experience a maintenance-free lifestyle, and pursue more social opportunities. It’s exciting that there are so many choices for baby boomers.”

“…that you will be remaining in your own home for the later years of your life; not moving into a smaller home, assisted living, or a retirement community etcetera.”

“The growing concentration of older households in outlying communities presents major challenges for residents and service providers alike. Single-family homes make up most of the housing stock in low-density areas, and residents typically need to be able to drive to do errands, see doctors, and socialize.”

“While most seniors say they want to age in place, a much smaller percentage of them actually manage to accomplish it, studies show. Transportation is often a problem; when you can no longer drive, you can’t get to medical appointments or to other outings.”

“Social contacts tend to decrease as we age for reasons such as retirement, the death of friends and family, or lack of mobility.”

Bottom Line

“There’s no reason to panic right now, even if we may be headed for a recession. We’re seeing a cooling of the housing market, but nothing that indicates a crash.

The real elephant in the room here is housing supply.”

“If there are a lot of homes on the market and suddenly no one wants to buy them, you’ll get into a downward spiral of price competition. Right now, however, we’re in the opposite situation, there isn’t an over-abundance of homes on the market.”

“There’s the natural life cycle of young people getting older and starting to do adult life things which include … buying a house and that’s a lot of potential inertia that could last indefinitely.”

Bottom Line

• Set the market value on possibly the largest asset your family owns (your home)
• Set the time schedule for the successful liquidation of that asset
• Set the fee for the services required to liquidate that asset

• Bragging about their success
• Bragging about their company’s success

You have many agents from which to choose. Pick someone who truly cares.

• Set the market value on possibly the largest asset your family owns (your home)
• Set the time schedule for the successful liquidation of that asset
• Set the fee for the services required to liquidate that asset

• Bragging about their success
• Bragging about their company’s success

You have many agents from which to choose. Pick someone who truly cares.

• What impact does the movement in mortgage interest rates have on buyer demand? 
• With home prices increasing rapidly, are we headed toward another housing bubble?
• Do you need a 20% down payment to purchase a home?
• Why can't we list at a higher price and drop it later if necessary?

• What impact does the movement in mortgage interest rates have on buyer demand? 
• With home prices increasing rapidly, are we headed toward another housing bubble?
• Do you need a 20% down payment to purchase a home?
• Why can't we list at a higher price and drop it later if necessary?

What Does High Confidence Mean for the Housing Market?

“Higher market confidence will translate into more building and more inventory in 2017. We expect single-family construction to grow 10 percent next year.”

“We can expect further growth in new home sales throughout the year, spurred on by employment gains and a rise in household formations. As the supply of existing homes remains tight, more consumers will turn to new construction.”

Bottom Line

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR:

“In spite of deficient supply levels, stock market volatility and the paltry economic growth seen so far this year, the housing market did show resilience and had its best first quarter of existing-sales since 2007.”

Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist at realtor.com:

“We had a triple crown of April home sales reports, so 2016 is in the pole position to earn best year of home sales in a decade.”

Andrea Riquier, MarketWatch housing reporter:

“I'm calling the end of the housing “recovery.” On to ‘expansion.’”

Freddie Mac:

“Despite the disappointing economic reports, we still forecast housing to maintain its momentum in 2016.”

Steven Russolillo, Wall Street Journal housing reporter:

“A recent gauge of home builder sentiment held firmly in positive territory, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Perhaps more important, expectations for sales in the next six months jumped to the highest level of the year.”

Fannie Mae:

“Our latest housing tracker shows that the first quarter of 2016 was the second fastest first quarter pace of home sales in the past decade... Home sales typically rise in the spring and summer months, and we anticipate an acceleration in home sales that will surpass 2007's pace by late summer.”

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR:

“In spite of deficient supply levels, stock market volatility and the paltry economic growth seen so far this year, the housing market did show resilience and had its best first quarter of existing-sales since 2007.”

Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist at realtor.com:

“We had a triple crown of April home sales reports, so 2016 is in the pole position to earn best year of home sales in a decade.”

Andrea Riquier, MarketWatch housing reporter:

“I'm calling the end of the housing “recovery.” On to ‘expansion.’”

Freddie Mac:

“Despite the disappointing economic reports, we still forecast housing to maintain its momentum in 2016.”

Steven Russolillo, Wall Street Journal housing reporter:

“A recent gauge of home builder sentiment held firmly in positive territory, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Perhaps more important, expectations for sales in the next six months jumped to the highest level of the year.”

Fannie Mae:

“Our latest housing tracker shows that the first quarter of 2016 was the second fastest first quarter pace of home sales in the past decade... Home sales typically rise in the spring and summer months, and we anticipate an acceleration in home sales that will surpass 2007's pace by late summer.”

What will happen in 2016?

“Demand for for-sale housing will grow and will continue to be dominated by older millennials, aged 25 to 34. This demographic has the potential to claim a third of home sales in 2016 and represent 2 million home purchases.”

What about household formations moving forward?

“We expect new household formation to be robust over the next decade as the large millennial generation ages and forms new households of their own.”

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